How much does non-state power matter to the future international order?

Every four years, the United States National Intelligence Council publishes a set of scenarios set in the distant future to explore how current trends might influence the U.S. strategic position in future decades. The rise of non-state power is consistently projected from the first of these publications to the most recent.

Each report tilts slightly more toward recognizing that global firms, NGOs and nonprofits, and transnational institutions can influence the global strategic environment and compete to provide government services, even in a world of superpowers and strong states. Has the international system shifted into a new phase of shared power and shared accountability?

The infographic below charts the evolution of nonstate power balance projections through excerpts from the quadrennial reports.

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