The Cone of Plausibility

What is the cone of plausibility?

The cone of plausibility is a visual framework used in strategic foresight to illustrate the relationship between the present moment and the range of future outcomes that may unfold over time. As uncertainty increases, the future does not resolve into a single outcome but instead expands into multiple possible paths.

The framework helps leaders distinguish between probable, plausible, possible, and preferable futures. It is particularly useful for organizations that need to make long-range decisions under conditions of uncertainty, complexity, and incomplete information.

As the diagram suggests, the further into the future one looks, the wider the range of outcomes that must be considered—and the less reliable narrow predictions become.

Origins of the framework

The cone of plausibility was first articulated publicly by Charles Taylor in 1988 in Alternative World Scenarios for Strategic Planning (U.S. Army War College), as a way of illustrating the range of geopolitical futures facing decision-makers.

Since then, the concept has been adapted and refined by futurists including Trevor Hancock, Clement Bezold, and Joseph Voros. While Prescient did not invent the concept, we developed the visual depiction used here to clarify how different categories of futures relate to one another in practice.

Insights for strategic planning

Several planning insights emerge when the cone of plausibility is used explicitly rather than implicitly:

The probable future is only one future.
The probable future reflects what is most widely expected to happen if current trends continue without major disruption. While useful, it represents consensus—not certainty.

Over-reliance on the probable future increases vulnerability.
Organizations that plan exclusively around the probable future are often surprised when unexpected developments occur. Making assumptions visible creates space to explore outcomes that may not be likely, but are nonetheless plausible and consequential.

Preferable futures highlight agency.
The concept of preferable futures reminds leaders that the future is not entirely predetermined. Strategic choices, investments, and governance decisions can influence which futures become more likely over time. Notably, preferable futures often sit at the outer edge of plausibility, where competitive and institutional advantages can emerge.

Possible futures set the outer boundary.
Possible futures describe what could happen within the physical and systemic constraints of the world, even if such outcomes are highly unlikely. The plausible future lies between this outer boundary and the narrower band of what is currently considered probable.

Case Example: Using the Cone of Plausibility in Strategic Planning

In 2018, Boeing projected a strong outlook for commercial aviation and positioned artificial intelligence and autonomy as drivers of improved safety and efficiency. The company’s planning assumptions reflected a continuation of historical safety trends and anticipated a growing role for autonomous systems in response to pilot shortages.

From the standpoint of the probable future at the time, these assumptions were reasonable. However, other plausible—if unlikely—scenarios received less attention. What conditions might lead to a fatal accident? What if such an event occurred more than once? How might regulatory, reputational, and operational consequences cascade?

Had greater consideration been given to these plausible futures, some of the downstream impacts that followed may have been mitigated. The example illustrates how planning that remains narrowly anchored to the probable future can obscure emerging risks with significant strategic consequences.

Why this matters

Strategic planning that focuses only on what seems most likely can limit an organization’s ability to anticipate risk, adapt to disruption, and recognize emerging opportunities. The cone of plausibility provides a disciplined way to broaden strategic conversations without collapsing into speculation.

Used well, it helps leadership teams test assumptions, surface blind spots, and make more resilient decisions in environments where uncertainty is not an exception, but a defining condition.

Apply the Framework

I use the cone of plausibility with leadership teams to surface assumptions, test strategic risk, and expand the range of futures under consideration.