Category Archives: Future trends

Global Trends and the future of the international order

How long can non-state power rise before it impacts the future of the international order? Summary: Global Trends & the future of the international order in 2040 State governments have recognized the rising power of transnational organizations, businesses and community groups since the 1990s. The rise of non-state actors has been a feature of the…

Technology and Diversity: Human Augmentation Technology in the Workplace

advancing technology and diversity

New Technologies Create New Diversity Issues for Employers and Employees In the last few years, cyborgs and augmented humans have gone from being futuristic sci-fi creatures that we only see in movies–from  Dr. No to Robocop—to a plausible and increasingly visible part of the social and commercial landscape. From smartphones to advanced prosthetics, new technologies hold the…

The Future of Governance & the End of the Public/Private Divide

the future of governance and the end of the public/ private divide

The Future of Public Governance The future may see the economic organism, now typified by the corporation, not only on an equal plane with the state but possibly even superseding it as the dominant form of social organization. The law of corporations, accordingly, might well be considered as a potential constitutional law for the new…

Projecting the Future of the Airport Requires An Open Mind

future of aviation

What is the future of the airport? In her book, The Imaginative Landscape of Christopher Columbus, Valerie Flint observed that Christopher Columbus believed until the end of his life that he had reached the ‘Indies,’ as he had intended. As we know, Columbus was wrong. Yet his assumption was not unreasonable; Columbus based his belief…

How Strategic Foresight Training is Evolving to Meet the Needs of an Era of Emerging Technology

Announcing the Foresight Sandbox: executive training in foresight with a focus on contextualizing technology I am excited to announce that Prescient LLC, the firm I founded last year, has partnered with Arizona State University’s School for the Future of Innovation in Society to provide applied foresight training to help leaders and teams contextualize and anticipate…

The Logic of the Huawei Controversy

global connectivity

The United States is concerned that Chinese telecommunications equipment producer Huawei is under the direct control of the Chinese government, and moreover that Huawei has created ‘back doors’ in its code that would provide Chinese Intelligence access to user information. As a result, all Huawei equipment has been barred from all US networks, and from New Zealand and Australia, which are following the American lead.

Trouble in Paradigms

future change

Paradigm breaking trends are domains in which reality is shaking up our old assumptions faster than we can generate new ones. It includes domains such as: war, peace and security; governance; the human body; the international system; work; and knowledge.

After Sovereignty: 6 Emerging Models of Global Governance

Image by Artem Bali, Unsplash

What will global governance look like in the future? How are we going to organize ourselves? Westphalian sovereignty was a terrific concept when it drew to an end a hundred years of religious war and bloodshed in Europe. But it is no longer a fully sustainable idea.

The litany of the ways the nation-state is under assault is familiar: Globalized economics, finance, supply chains and communications limit states’ control over their borders. Disease, climate related threats and ideas of all sorts cross borders with impunity. The private sector and the super rich set agendas and have control over some of our public goods, especially information.

To make matters more complicated, while our global challenges demand greater trust and cooperation across borders and between different kinds of actors, power is devolving to the level of a single individual, creating many more actors whose trust and cooperation is required. If I can do genetic experimentation in my basement, communicate with the..

Venturing beyond the Filter Bubble: A Modest Proposal for Tourism Recommender Systems

Can the tourism industry create the perfect algorithm? One that precisely predicts where a traveler wants to go and what she wants to do when she gets there? Asked to consider this question recently on behalf of the Vixouze Discussions , an annual conference on the future of tourism, my short answer was, Yes.

Predictive analytics in tourism are animated by “recommender systems” which use either the prior online behavior of an individual or a group of individuals who are like each other to ‘predict’ what we would like. Netflix, Amazon and TripAdvisor are examples of companies that use the traces of our digital behavior to predict what else we will like. Leaving aside costs and ethics for the moment, there is no theoretical barrier to more and more nuanced personalization as we all leave more and more digital traces behind. If I have already shared a preference for medium-firm pillows in my hotel room or beach vacations, a recommender system can call out more of the same.

Tourism recom..